Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 46¢ · $745 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$744.73
-$6.91
48.1¢ → 46¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 51.3¢ | $297.96 | $272.41 | -$25.15 | 20% 312-1272 (1584) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $230.92 | $245.38 | +$14.45 | 51% 647-634 (1281) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 51¢ | $155.3 | $160.25 | +$4.95 | 59% 1800-1250 (3050) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $62.41 | $59.01 | -$1.13 | 55% 410-331 (741) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $47.2 | $7.68 | -$0.04 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
IstarothCTRInvested
$297.96
Value
$272.41
PnL
-$25.15
Record
20%
312-1272 (1584)
Invested
$230.92
Value
$245.38
PnL
+$14.45
Record
51%
647-634 (1281)
Invested
$155.3
Value
$160.25
PnL
+$4.95
Record
59%
1800-1250 (3050)
Invested
$62.41
Value
$59.01
PnL
-$1.13
Record
55%
410-331 (741)
Invested
$47.2
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.