Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on November 2?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 59¢ · $278 held · ends Nov 2

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$277.92

Combined PnL

-$3.36

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 59¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$265.23

Total Shares507

Combined PnL-$2.44

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.69

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.92

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 48.6¢	$164.73	$176.36	-$7.02	61% 2332-1521 (3853)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 49.3¢	$36.07	$38.05	+$1.98	38% 680-1090 (1770)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 52¢	$16.63	$18.23	+$1.6	54% 7342-6317 (13659)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$17.06	$17.94	+$0.88	35% 698-1270 (1968)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.4¢	$13.61	$12.69	-$0.92	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.26	$5.26	+$0	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.62	$2.62	+$0	38% 751-1204 (1955)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.6	+$0.15	59% 218-153 (371)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.58	-$0.02	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 52¢	$1.59	$1.59	+$0	35% 554-1008 (1562)

241532532432

Invested

$164.73

Value

$176.36

PnL

-$7.02

Record

61%

2332-1521 (3853)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$36.07

Value

$38.05

PnL

+$1.98

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.63

Value

$18.23

PnL

+$1.6

Record

54%

7342-6317 (13659)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.06

Value

$17.94

PnL

+$0.88

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.61

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.02

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.