Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $399 held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$399.24

Combined PnL

-$41.13

Smart Money Entry

34.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$287.03

Total Shares656

Combined PnL-$55.04

No2 traders

Total Value$112.21

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$13.91

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 39.8¢	$82.78	$235.85	-$52.56	20% 318-1310 (1628)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$69.53	$73.07	+$3.53	59% 1828-1274 (3102)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$11.5	$51.18	-$1.73	55% 417-345 (762)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$43.49	$39.14	+$10.38	57% 13804-10576 (24380)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.76	$0.01	-$0.75	53% 6559-5774 (12333)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$82.78

Value

$235.85

PnL

-$52.56

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$69.53

Value

$73.07

PnL

+$3.53

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.5

Value

$51.18

PnL

-$1.73

Record

55%

417-345 (762)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.49

Value

$39.14

PnL

+$10.38

Record

57%

13804-10576 (24380)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

6559-5774 (12333)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.