Will the highest temperature in Milan be 8°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $134 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$133.74

Combined PnL

$1.57

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$133.45

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$1.82

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.29

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.25

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$54	$34.98	+$0.98	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$20.85	$21.33	+$0.48	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$19.74	$19.7	-$0.04	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.17	$15.18	+$0.01	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$10.7	$10.99	+$0.29	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$9.3	$9.2	-$0.1	52% 909-844 (1753)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8	$8	+$0	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$5.03	$5.33	+$0.3	71% 950-388 (1338)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.85	-$0.1	33% 83-166 (249)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$3.89	$3.88	-$0.01	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.29	-$0.17	24% 788-2560 (3348)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.08	$0	-$0.08	58% 864-619 (1483)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.98

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$21.33

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.74

Value

$19.7

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$15.17

Value

$15.18

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.29

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.3

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.17

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.