Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $91 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$90.85

Combined PnL

-$6.31

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$90.84

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$0.53

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$6.84

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$28.11	$28.19	+$0.07	60% 874-593 (1467)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$19.21	$19.58	+$0.37	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0.01	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.15	$9.15	-$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.99	$8	+$0	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.99	+$0.04	33% 83-166 (249)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.91	$4.93	+$0.03	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.77	$0.01	-$3.68	50% 919-925 (1844)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1626-2854 (4480)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$31.87	$0	-$2.71	28% 3298-8406 (11704)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$28.11

Value

$28.19

PnL

+$0.07

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.21

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.77

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.68

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1626-2854 (4480)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.87

Value

PnL

-$2.71

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.