Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on November 13?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 8.9¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 13

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$299.65

Combined PnL

-$50.34

Smart Money Entry

11.8¢ → 8.9¢

-25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$193.04

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$13.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$106.61

Total Shares1,441

Combined PnL-$63.36

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Alegrandebig	Noavg 88.7¢	$177.39	$106.07	+$6.62	— 12-6 (18)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 13.2¢	$136.21	$76.47	-$59.74	59% 1163-798 (1961)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$35.1	$34.47	-$0.62	62% 473-292 (765)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$22.8	$19.28	-$3.52	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$68.93	$18.59	+$7.56	53% 925-815 (1740)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.21	$16.9	-$0.31	25% 92-281 (373)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$10.58	$10.48	-$0.1	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$8.08	$7.47	-$0.61	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$6.65	$6.53	-$0.12	45% 521-645 (1166)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$2.88	$3.38	+$0.5	44% 11-14 (25)

Alegrandebig

Invested

$177.39

Value

$106.07

PnL

+$6.62

Record

—

12-6 (18)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$136.21

Value

$76.47

PnL

-$59.74

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$35.1

Value

$34.47

PnL

-$0.62

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.8

Value

$19.28

PnL

-$3.52

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$68.93

Value

$18.59

PnL

+$7.56

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$17.21

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.48

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.08

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$0.61

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.65

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$0.12

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.88

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.5

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.3%

8.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$866.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

966.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.