Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 6°C or below on November 12?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$100.14

Combined PnL

-$40.6

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares387

Combined PnL-$40.65

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.36	$0.06	-$11.3	65% 444-243 (687)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$40.35	$0.06	-$13.02	29% 888-2138 (3026)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.51	$0.02	-$4.48	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.5	$0.02	-$3.48	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.75	$0.02	-$5.71	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.95	$0.01	-$0.94	79% 502-133 (635)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	41% 3187-4522 (7709)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.36

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.3

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.35

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$13.02

Record

29%

888-2138 (3026)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.48

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.48

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.71

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.94

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

41%

3187-4522 (7709)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.