Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 10?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $172 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$171.59
-$20.23
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $112.41 | $90.85 | -$21.57 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.9¢ | $72.56 | $62.05 | -$10.52 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.6¢ | $39.85 | $28.8 | -$11.05 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 76.2¢ | $24.45 | $21.71 | -$2.73 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $18.29 | $14.27 | -$4.01 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $12.8 | -$2.8 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $36.12 | $11.69 | -$5.47 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $12.25 | $9.56 | -$2.69 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 79.1¢ | $10 | $8.09 | -$1.91 | 8% 32-363 (395) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.23 | $2.62 | -$0.61 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
Invested
$112.41
Value
$90.85
PnL
-$21.57
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.45
Value
$21.71
PnL
-$2.73
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.29
Value
$14.27
PnL
-$4.01
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$12.8
PnL
-$2.8
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$36.12
Value
$11.69
PnL
-$5.47
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$2.69
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.09
PnL
-$1.91
Record
8%
32-363 (395)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$2.62
PnL
-$0.61
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.