Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 10?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$201.14
$12.15
40.5¢ → 50.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $145.19 | $162.67 | +$17.48 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $14.45 | $11.93 | -$2.51 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $10.7 | -$1.3 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $11.51 | $10.51 | -$1 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.5 | -$0.5 | 8% 32-363 (395) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $0.85 | $0.83 | -$0.02 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$145.19
Value
$162.67
PnL
+$17.48
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$14.45
Value
$11.93
PnL
-$2.51
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$12
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$1.3
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$11.51
Value
$10.51
PnL
-$1
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
8%
32-363 (395)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.83
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.