Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 10?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $494 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$494.01
$29.14
90.5¢ → 95.2¢
+5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $333.74 | $357.63 | +$23.89 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $68.49 | $69.82 | +$1.33 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $19.55 | $21.47 | +$1.92 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $19.26 | +$0.46 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $13 | $14.39 | +$1.39 | 11% 28-230 (258) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.99 | $5.06 | +$0.07 | 8% 32-363 (395) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $3.8 | $3.94 | +$0.13 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $2.5 | $2.44 | -$0.06 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
Invested
$333.74
Value
$357.63
PnL
+$23.89
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$68.49
Value
$69.82
PnL
+$1.33
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.55
Value
$21.47
PnL
+$1.92
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$19.26
PnL
+$0.46
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$13
Value
$14.39
PnL
+$1.39
Record
11%
28-230 (258)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.07
Record
8%
32-363 (395)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.94
PnL
+$0.13
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.44
PnL
-$0.06
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.