Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 8?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $246 held · ended Nov 8

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$245.94

Combined PnL

-$7.98

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 96¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$243.32

Total Shares258

Combined PnL-$5.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.6

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$2.97

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 95.9¢	$152.45	$139.4	-$4.64	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$48.9	$43.56	-$0.43	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$35.27	$35.27	+$0	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$20.72	$14.62	-$0.25	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$27.96	$6.15	+$0.35	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.25	$4.32	-$0.04	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$3.53	$1.62	-$1.91	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$2.05	$0.99	-$1.06	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

Lucerys

Invested

$152.45

Value

$139.4

PnL

-$4.64

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$48.9

Value

$43.56

PnL

-$0.43

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$35.27

Value

$35.27

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.72

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$0.25

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$27.96

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$1.91

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$1.06

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.