Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on November 8?
Resolved No. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Yes 100%
$0
-$20.39
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $10.04 | — | -$10.04 | 47% 47428-53893 (101321) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $9.34 | — | -$9.34 | 45% 16720-20376 (37096) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $0.23 | — | -$1 | 22% 3414-11955 (15369) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35457-83867 (119324) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18536-24186 (42722) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 21778-45614 (67392) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 35% 1158-2115 (3273) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 3999-6085 (10084) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 25722-21534 (47256) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 21529-21407 (42936) |
Invested
$10.04
Value
—
PnL
-$10.04
Record
47%
47428-53893 (101321)
Invested
$9.34
Value
—
PnL
-$9.34
Record
45%
16720-20376 (37096)
Invested
$0.23
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
22%
3414-11955 (15369)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35457-83867 (119324)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18536-24186 (42722)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
21778-45614 (67392)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1158-2115 (3273)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3999-6085 (10084)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
25722-21534 (47256)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
21529-21407 (42936)