Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on November 6?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $405 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$404.69
$252.87
49.4¢ → 98¢
+98% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658 | Noavg 11.5¢ | $31.99 | $187.12 | +$225.43 | 38% 1263-2071 (3334) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $156.9 | $186.72 | +$29.82 | 39% 835-1312 (2147) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $17.76 | $17.86 | +$0.1 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $8.77 | $8.93 | +$0.16 | 53% 23469-20698 (44167) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $6.68 | $4.06 | -$2.63 | 17% 4487-21969 (26456) |
Invested
$31.99
Value
$187.12
PnL
+$225.43
Record
38%
1263-2071 (3334)
Invested
$156.9
Value
$186.72
PnL
+$29.82
Record
39%
835-1312 (2147)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$17.86
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
Invested
$8.77
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
23469-20698 (44167)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$6.68
Value
$4.06
PnL
-$2.63
Record
17%
4487-21969 (26456)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.