Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on November 5?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $522 held · ends Nov 5

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$522

Combined PnL

$16.62

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 96¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$506

Total Shares532

Combined PnL+$19.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$16

Total Shares320

Combined PnL-$3.21

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 88.7¢	$297.23	$318.46	+$21.23	15% 459-2699 (3158)
Lucerys	Noavg 96.2¢	$111.64	$110.29	-$1.34	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$20.79	$20.9	+$0.11	44% 2186-2829 (5015)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$18.5	$18.27	-$0.23	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$18.01	$15	-$3.01	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$14.28	$14.3	+$0.02	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$27.67	$9.5	-$0.11	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.05	$9.26	+$0.22	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$5.08	$5.02	-$0.06	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.2	$1	-$0.2	20% 2580-10222 (12802)

Istaroth

Invested

$297.23

Value

$318.46

PnL

+$21.23

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Lucerys

Invested

$111.64

Value

$110.29

PnL

-$1.34

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

123987456<$100

Invested

$20.79

Value

$20.9

PnL

+$0.11

Record

44%

2186-2829 (5015)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.27

PnL

-$0.23

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.01

Value

$15

PnL

-$3.01

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$27.67

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.05

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.