Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 33¢ · $396 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$396.34
$38.9
26.6¢ → 32.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $104.58 | $119.59 | +$15.01 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $85.27 | $102.26 | +$16.99 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $90.93 | $83.84 | -$2.5 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $77.96 | $80.65 | +$9.41 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $10.1 | $10 | -$0.01 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
Invested
$104.58
Value
$119.59
PnL
+$15.01
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$85.27
Value
$102.26
PnL
+$16.99
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$90.93
Value
$83.84
PnL
-$2.5
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$77.96
Value
$80.65
PnL
+$9.41
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$10.1
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.01
Record
18%
365-1632 (1997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.