Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 69¢ · $486 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$486.14
$67.49
43.8¢ → 69¢
+58% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $245.42 | $313.97 | +$77.97 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $118.14 | $139.74 | +$21.6 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 53¢ | $165.1 | $32.43 | -$32.07 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.