Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on November 15?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $217 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$216.83

Combined PnL

-$0.18

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$216.81

Total Shares217

Combined PnL+$0.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.89

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$45.52	$45.74	+$0.23	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$42.69	$42.88	+$0.19	38% 317-524 (841)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$31.31	$31.5	+$0.19	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$24.95	$24.94	-$0.01	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.68	$19.69	+$0.02	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.98	$10.97	-$0.01	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.92	$9.99	+$0.07	39% 327-521 (848)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.28	$9.29	+$0.01	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.13	$9.16	+$0.03	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.1	$5.1	-$0	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	57% 836-638 (1474)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1609-24 (1633)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.02	-$0.89	35% 330-600 (930)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$45.52

Value

$45.74

PnL

+$0.23

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$42.69

Value

$42.88

PnL

+$0.19

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.31

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$24.95

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$19.69

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

$10.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.07

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.28

Value

$9.29

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.13

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

35%

330-600 (930)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.