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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on November 11?

Resolved No. 92% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Yes 90%

Total Value

$80

Combined PnL

-$32.45

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader
Total Value$80
Total Shares80
Combined PnL+$0.08
Yes11 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares331
Combined PnL-$32.53
No — 8%Yes — 92%
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100
No

Invested

$79.92

Value

$80

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

570-5 (575)

0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$10.36

Value

—

PnL

-$10.36

Record

42%

806-1105 (1911)

KA
kaxel78CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$4.92

Value

—

PnL

-$4.92

Record

28%

530-1383 (1913)

LucerysCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

—

PnL

-$6.65

Record

37%

3428-5859 (9287)

KL
klli27CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

—

PnL

-$4.09

Record

28%

525-1373 (1898)

SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

17%

87-438 (525)

AK
akrollCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

—

PnL

-$1.01

Record

28%

524-1376 (1900)

LU
luciebotCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

—

PnL

-$0.92

Record

36%

506-908 (1414)

QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$2.72

Value

—

PnL

-$0.68

Record

30%

2929-6854 (9783)

XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

—

PnL

-$0.45

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

AN
anothercoinCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

—

PnL

-$0.71

Record

39%

1379-2181 (3560)

GO
god83743894CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

74-360 (434)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x8caa2649...35e0d8
Slug
highest-temperature-in-miami-on-november-11-2026-76-77f

Traders in this Market

1D

1DVSBSTD

No — $80

+$0.08
0X

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

CTR

Yes — $0

-$10.36
KA

kaxel78

CTR

Yes — $0

-$4.92

Lucerys

CTR

Yes — $0

-$6.65
KL

klli27

CTR

Yes — $0

-$4.09
SM

smallreceipt

CTR

Yes — $0

-$2.73
AK

akroll

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.01
LU

luciebot

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.92
QW

qwen300.fund

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.68
XT

xtxpleasecallme

CTR

Yes — $0

-$0.45
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