Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on October 31?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$219.24

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 97.5¢

+217% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$668.87

Total Shares1,539

Combined PnL+$224.55

No1 trader

Total Value$10.44

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$5.31

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$768.45	$709.76	-$23.28	20% 329-1356 (1685)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.5¢	$428.74	$361.57	-$79.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.1¢	$288.73	$348.19	+$56.7
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 24.3¢	$304.28	$519.78	+$215.5	47% 681-762 (1443)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 58.8¢	$140.04	$149.09	+$9.05	55% 435-356 (791)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$101.64	$117.95	+$16.32	59% 1859-1299 (3158)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.1¢	$64.04	$81.5	+$17.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.6¢	$37.6	$36.45	-$1.15
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$22.64	$10.44	-$5.31	57% 13877-10647 (24524)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$768.45

Value

$709.76

PnL

-$23.28

Record

20%

329-1356 (1685)

Both legs:

No$428.7454.5¢-$79.98

Yes$288.7343.1¢+$56.7

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$304.28

Value

$519.78

PnL

+$215.5

Record

47%

681-762 (1443)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$140.04

Value

$149.09

PnL

+$9.05

Record

55%

435-356 (791)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$101.64

Value

$117.95

PnL

+$16.32

Record

59%

1859-1299 (3158)

Both legs:

No$64.0436.1¢+$17.46

Yes$37.653.6¢-$1.15

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$22.64

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$5.31

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.