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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on November 1?

Resolved Yes. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

No 71%

Total Value

$237.18

Combined PnL

$797.23

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$237.18

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$921.23

No7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$124

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 7¢	$15.34	$220.14	+$204.8	61% 2345-1531 (3876)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yes	$17.04	$17.04	+$17.11	35% 16909-31257 (48166)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$82.07	—	-$23.06	55% 25925-21197 (47122)
LucerysCTR	Noavg 74.5¢	$143.39	—	+$21	92% 8583-746 (9329)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 0.5¢	$29.95	—	+$0	44% 1555-1970 (3525)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$53.78	—	-$53.78	50% 2041-2006 (4047)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 24.5¢	$227.5	—	+$699.33	50% 727-724 (1451)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 84.4¢	$64.25	—	-$25.07	57% 17228-12894 (30122)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$36.57	—	-$36.57	54% 7492-6399 (13891)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$38.92	—	-$6.52	17% 399-1952 (2351)

Invested

$15.34

Value

$220.14

PnL

+$204.8

Record

61%

2345-1531 (3876)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$17.04

Value

$17.04

PnL

+$17.11

Record

35%

16909-31257 (48166)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$82.07

Value

—

PnL

-$23.06

Record

55%

25925-21197 (47122)

Invested

$143.39

Value

—

PnL

+$21

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

1555-1970 (3525)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$53.78

Value

—

PnL

-$53.78

Record

50%

2041-2006 (4047)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$227.5

Value

—

PnL

+$699.33

Record

50%

727-724 (1451)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$64.25

Value

—

PnL

-$25.07

Record

57%

17228-12894 (30122)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$36.57

Value

—

PnL

-$36.57

Record

54%

7492-6399 (13891)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$38.92

Value

—

PnL

-$6.52

Record

17%

399-1952 (2351)

Smart Money Signal

No

7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5d9ac71b...cf1d22

Slug

highest-temperature-in-mexico-city-on-november-1-2026-24c

Traders in this Market

241532532432

Yes — $220.14

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $17.04

balthazar

No — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

hello.67

No — $0

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

Poligarch

No — $0

Istaroth

No — $0

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