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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNo
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$0.8
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares20
Combined PnL-$0.8
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.8 | — | -$0.8 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20984-13348 (34332) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15335-27408 (42743) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
—
PnL
-$0.8
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20984-13348 (34332)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15335-27408 (42743)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x92d644fe...d51c1b
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-30-2026-35c