Back to Markets
Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNo
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$11.12
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares207
Combined PnL-$11.12
No4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 43%No — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $11.12 | — | -$11.12 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20984-13348 (34332) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
HI HighTempTation<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 99% 1567-4 (1571) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15335-27408 (42743) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$11.12
Value
—
PnL
-$11.12
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20984-13348 (34332)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
HI
HighTempTation<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
1567-4 (1571)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15335-27408 (42743)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x9ab72c6d...26caa8
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-30-2026-31c