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NoYesYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 50%
Total Value
$10.61
Combined PnL
-$2.39
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$10.61
Total Shares11
Combined PnL+$0.9
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares34
Combined PnL-$3.29
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $9.71 | $10.61 | +$0.9 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | $3.29 | — | -$3.29 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$9.71
Value
$10.61
PnL
+$0.9
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$3.29
Value
—
PnL
-$3.29
Record
55%
217-181 (398)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9875aaf1...c764b0
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-27-2026-35c