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YesYesNoNo
Istaroth<$100NoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$6.92
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares41
Combined PnL-$6.92
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $6.92 | — | -$6.92 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 75.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$6.92
Value
—
PnL
-$6.92
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
HE
HellYeahTrader<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
217-181 (398)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x22c7e948...be0633
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-27-2026-32c