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No
balthazar<$100NoYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 100%
Total Value
$10
Combined PnL
$0.26
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$10
Total Shares10
Combined PnL+$0.26
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $9.74 | $10 | +$0.26 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20522-12983 (33505) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$9.74
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.26
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20522-12983 (33505)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x64f2aefc...0f9096
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-27-2026-31c