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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on October 2?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 60%
Total Value
$46.44
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4232217f...444fd8
Slug
highest-temperature-in-manila-on-october-2-2026-30c