Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$126.61
-$2.45
97.9¢ → 96¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $90.62 | $88.93 | -$1.69 | 71% 13951-5591 (19542) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $42.46 | $28.8 | -$0.72 | 58% 15834-11510 (27344) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $12.78 | $4.8 | -$0.12 | 42% 914-1244 (2158) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $4.24 | $4.08 | +$0.07 | 42% 2368-3244 (5612) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$90.62
Value
$88.93
PnL
-$1.69
Record
71%
13951-5591 (19542)
Invested
$42.46
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$0.72
Record
58%
15834-11510 (27344)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.12
Record
42%
914-1244 (2158)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$4.08
PnL
+$0.07
Record
42%
2368-3244 (5612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.