Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on November 4?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $273 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$272.78

Combined PnL

$101.65

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$272.28

Total Shares272

Combined PnL+$111.67

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$10.02

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 38.9¢	$69.54	$178.65	+$109.11	53% 29106-25981 (55087)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$28.66	$29.99	+$1.33	58% 2488-1820 (4308)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$30.18	$26.03	+$0.77	58% 19331-14228 (33559)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99¢	$61.9	$22.49	+$0.2	78% 12307-3545 (15852)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99¢	$71.52	$10	+$0.18	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$35.96	$5.13	+$0.07	47% 2122-2412 (4534)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.1	$0.37	+$13.11	55% 4387-3591 (7978)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$255.81	$0.13	-$23.13	44% 794-997 (1791)

balthazar

Invested

$69.54

Value

$178.65

PnL

+$109.11

Record

53%

29106-25981 (55087)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$28.66

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$1.33

Record

58%

2488-1820 (4308)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.18

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$0.77

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$61.9

Value

$22.49

PnL

+$0.2

Record

78%

12307-3545 (15852)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$71.52

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.18

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$35.96

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2122-2412 (4534)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.37

PnL

+$13.11

Record

55%

4387-3591 (7978)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$255.81

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.13

Record

44%

794-997 (1791)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.