Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 5?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $398 held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$398.49

Combined PnL

$9.19

Smart Money Entry

28.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$350.31

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL+$8.1

No3 traders

Total Value$48.17

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$1.08

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 36.7¢	$883.22	$324.64	+$47.63	40% 830-1231 (2061)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$34.8	$39.28	+$4.48	53% 23194-20409 (43603)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$27.4	$13.76	-$13.64	18% 4435-20817 (25252)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.8¢	$38.11	$10.15	-$27.96	54% 10311-8906 (19217)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$9.47	$5.63	-$3.69	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$2.97	$3.26	+$0.29	39% 1113-1749 (2862)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$12.06	$1.73	+$2.08	75% 13139-4322 (17461)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.04	$0.04	-$0	27% 7006-19139 (26145)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$883.22

Value

$324.64

PnL

+$47.63

Record

40%

830-1231 (2061)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$39.28

PnL

+$4.48

Record

53%

23194-20409 (43603)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.4

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$13.64

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.11

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$27.96

Record

54%

10311-8906 (19217)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.47

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$3.69

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.29

Record

39%

1113-1749 (2862)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.06

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$2.08

Record

75%

13139-4322 (17461)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.