Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 5?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 5

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$414.99

Combined PnL

$32.15

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 49.5¢

-32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$144.11

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$77.7

No6 traders

Total Value$196.26

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$45.55

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 16.5¢	$214.35	$101.61	+$50.94	41% 825-1203 (2028)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$60.61	$74.62	+$14.01	54% 10260-8877 (19137)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$23.47	$45.07	+$21.59
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$37.14	$29.55	-$7.59
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 44.8¢	$60.98	$59.44	+$5.67	53% 8400-7487 (15887)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$61.76	$51.21	-$10.55	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$51.91	$34.11	-$17.8	41% 1203-1759 (2962)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 82.8¢	$101.8	$27.24	-$15.6	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$7.73	$22.52	+$14.79	53% 3929-3484 (7413)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$28.57	$21.9	-$6.67	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$8.02	$19.98	+$11.97	18% 4414-20716 (25130)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$2.96	$2.37	-$0.6	41% 1142-1647 (2789)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$214.35

Value

$101.61

PnL

+$50.94

Record

41%

825-1203 (2028)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$60.61

Value

$74.62

PnL

+$14.01

Record

54%

10260-8877 (19137)

Both legs:

Yes$23.4727¢+$21.59

No$37.1460.5¢-$7.59

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$60.98

Value

$59.44

PnL

+$5.67

Record

53%

8400-7487 (15887)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$61.76

Value

$51.21

PnL

-$10.55

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$51.91

Value

$34.11

PnL

-$17.8

Record

41%

1203-1759 (2962)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$101.8

Value

$27.24

PnL

-$15.6

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.73

Value

$22.52

PnL

+$14.79

Record

53%

3929-3484 (7413)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$28.57

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$6.67

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$11.97

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.96

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.6

Record

41%

1142-1647 (2789)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.8%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.