Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on November 4?

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $626 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$625.87

Combined PnL

-$226.88

Smart Money Entry

25.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$547.98

Total Shares640

Combined PnL+$154.23

Yes5 traders

Total Value$77.89

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL-$381.12

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 41.2¢	$109.39	$192.88	+$118.63	46% 10104-11804 (21908)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 71¢	$138.58	$126.1	-$12.48	53% 9830-8561 (18391)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$79.04	$77.83	-$0.38	15% 432-2410 (2842)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$43.38	$51.25	+$7.86	79% 12015-3213 (15228)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$90.93	$45.46	-$45.47	58% 2450-1791 (4241)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$28.6	$32.8	+$4.2	54% 22113-19218 (41331)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 22.2¢	$11.14	$31.97	+$34.51	55% 4349-3535 (7884)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$386.4	$15	-$179.54	44% 775-972 (1747)
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$168.59	$12.91	-$155.68	53% 3751-3364 (7115)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$9.44	$10.86	+$1.41	47% 2062-2341 (4403)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$50.4	$8.2	+$1.31	60% 11527-7695 (19222)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 71¢	$6.35	$6.65	+$0.29	38% 970-1584 (2554)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.39	$5.14	-$0.25	40% 2086-3131 (5217)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$23.04	$4.34	+$1.3	58% 18891-13903 (32794)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$25.71	$4.3	-$0.88	47% 1608-1792 (3400)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.92	$0.18	-$1.74	38% 985-1576 (2561)

god83743894

Invested

$109.39

Value

$192.88

PnL

+$118.63

Record

46%

10104-11804 (21908)

Poligarch

Invested

$138.58

Value

$126.1

PnL

-$12.48

Record

53%

9830-8561 (18391)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$79.04

Value

$77.83

PnL

-$0.38

Record

15%

432-2410 (2842)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.38

Value

$51.25

PnL

+$7.86

Record

79%

12015-3213 (15228)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.93

Value

$45.46

PnL

-$45.47

Record

58%

2450-1791 (4241)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.6

Value

$32.8

PnL

+$4.2

Record

54%

22113-19218 (41331)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.14

Value

$31.97

PnL

+$34.51

Record

55%

4349-3535 (7884)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$386.4

Value

$15

PnL

-$179.54

Record

44%

775-972 (1747)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$168.59

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$155.68

Record

53%

3751-3364 (7115)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.44

Value

$10.86

PnL

+$1.41

Record

47%

2062-2341 (4403)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$50.4

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$1.31

Record

60%

11527-7695 (19222)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.29

Record

38%

970-1584 (2554)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$0.25

Record

40%

2086-3131 (5217)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.04

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$1.3

Record

58%

18891-13903 (32794)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$25.71

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.88

Record

47%

1608-1792 (3400)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.74

Record

38%

985-1576 (2561)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.