Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$85.02

Combined PnL

-$10.84

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$84.96

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$10.88

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.92	$84.96	+$0.04	99% 1449-21 (1470)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.18	$0.02	-$3.16	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	26% 567-1650 (2217)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.23	$0.01	-$1.22	18% 855-3966 (4821)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.58	$0	-$0.58	36% 268-480 (748)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.51	$0	-$0.51	31% 229-507 (736)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	24% 108-347 (455)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.43	$0	-$0.43	28% 3241-8219 (11460)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$84.92

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.16

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

26%

567-1650 (2217)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.22

Record

18%

855-3966 (4821)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

PnL

-$0.58

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

PnL

-$0.51

Record

31%

229-507 (736)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

24%

108-347 (455)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

PnL

-$0.43

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.