Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on November 15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $73 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$72.94

Combined PnL

$0.44

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$72.85

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$1.28

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$0.84

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$23.04	$23.95	+$0.91	42% 763-1074 (1837)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.02	$20.02	-$0	58% 840-598 (1438)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$12.47	$12.48	+$0.01	99% 1531-23 (1554)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.03	$10.02	-$0.01	47% 872-965 (1837)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 94¢	$6.01	$6.38	+$0.37	34% 337-661 (998)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.06	$0.03	-$0.03	57% 812-617 (1429)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	52% 917-858 (1775)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0.02	-$0.8	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	52% 2230-2031 (4261)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.01	47% 1212-1372 (2584)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$23.95

PnL

+$0.91

Record

42%

763-1074 (1837)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

840-598 (1438)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.47

Value

$12.48

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1531-23 (1554)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

872-965 (1837)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$0.37

Record

34%

337-661 (998)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

812-617 (1429)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

917-858 (1775)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.8

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2230-2031 (4261)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1212-1372 (2584)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.