Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $49 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$49.21

Combined PnL

-$43.12

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$48.98

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$43.15

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$48.95	$48.98	+$0.02	33% 225-451 (676)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.18	$0.09	-$16.09	49% 769-816 (1585)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.32	$0.04	-$7.28	55% 1091-888 (1979)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.92	$0.03	-$4.9	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.02	-$3.62	29% 3170-7895 (11065)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.35	$0.02	-$4.33	27% 679-1844 (2523)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.27	$0.01	-$2.26	36% 3740-6764 (10504)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.05	$0.01	-$2.03	26% 548-1576 (2124)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.01	-$1.36	37% 1521-2578 (4099)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.28	$0.01	-$1.28	44% 5060-6556 (11616)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$48.95

Value

$48.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.18

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.09

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.28

Record

55%

1091-888 (1979)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.92

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.9

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

29%

3170-7895 (11065)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.35

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.33

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.26

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.03

Record

26%

548-1576 (2124)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.36

Record

37%

1521-2578 (4099)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.28

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.