Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on November 4?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $247 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$246.98
$11.42
68¢ → 76.5¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $45.38 | $65.44 | -$12.66 | 53% 3423-3055 (6478) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $60.6 | $60 | -$0.27 | 16% 416-2177 (2593) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 4.1¢ | $1.5 | $28.69 | +$27.19 | 50% 8123-8215 (16338) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $24.87 | $23.39 | -$1.48 | 79% 10892-2961 (13853) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $18.8 | $22.27 | +$3.47 | 63% 1744-1008 (2752) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $24.57 | $22.23 | -$2.35 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $23.94 | $21.7 | -$2.24 | 60% 10613-7204 (17817) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $3.51 | $3.26 | -$0.25 | 31% 2028-4529 (6557) |
Invested
$45.38
Value
$65.44
PnL
-$12.66
Record
53%
3423-3055 (6478)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$60.6
Value
$60
PnL
-$0.27
Record
16%
416-2177 (2593)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$28.69
PnL
+$27.19
Record
50%
8123-8215 (16338)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$24.87
Value
$23.39
PnL
-$1.48
Record
79%
10892-2961 (13853)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$18.8
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$3.47
Record
63%
1744-1008 (2752)
Invested
$24.57
Value
$22.23
PnL
-$2.35
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$21.7
PnL
-$2.24
Record
60%
10613-7204 (17817)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$0.25
Record
31%
2028-4529 (6557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.