Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $113 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$112.72

Combined PnL

-$0.86

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$112.71

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$22.69	$23.25	+$0.56	40% 657-989 (1646)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$21.15	$21.14	-$0.01	50% 720-711 (1431)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.98	$20.96	-$0.02	39% 3638-5770 (9408)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$27.36	$16.3	-$1	27% 691-1911 (2602)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$19.81	$7.64	+$0.23	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$7.28	$7.28	+$0	51% 771-729 (1500)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$6	$6.03	+$0.03	99% 1293-18 (1311)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0	51% 807-768 (1575)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.09	$5.02	-$0.64	57% 703-521 (1224)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	49% 755-800 (1555)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$22.69

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$0.56

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$21.15

Value

$21.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

720-711 (1431)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$20.98

Value

$20.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

39%

3638-5770 (9408)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$27.36

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$1

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.81

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

771-729 (1500)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

1293-18 (1311)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

807-768 (1575)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.09

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.64

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

755-800 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.