Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 29?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 47¢ · $467 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$467.32
$109
26.5¢ → 47¢
+77% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $166.17 | $287.74 | +$121.58 | 51% 596-562 (1158) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $104.51 | $89.26 | -$15.25 | 50% 1675-1660 (3335) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 71.1¢ | $53.07 | $50 | -$0.54 | 25% 282-835 (1117) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $22.36 | $22.58 | +$0.21 | 55% 284-237 (521) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $14 | $10.5 | -$3.5 | 61% 20733-13148 (33881) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $9.99 | $7.24 | +$6.49 | 36% 14901-27010 (41911) |
Invested
$166.17
Value
$287.74
PnL
+$121.58
Record
51%
596-562 (1158)
Invested
$104.51
Value
$89.26
PnL
-$15.25
Record
50%
1675-1660 (3335)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$53.07
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.54
Record
25%
282-835 (1117)
Invested
$22.36
Value
$22.58
PnL
+$0.21
Record
55%
284-237 (521)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$3.5
Record
61%
20733-13148 (33881)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$6.49
Record
36%
14901-27010 (41911)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.