Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 8?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $722 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$721.8
$2.58
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $655.24 | $689.17 | -$10.55 | 37% 891-1523 (2414) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.3¢ | $496.45 | $487.54 | -$53.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $209.5 | $201.63 | +$42.84 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | $22.02 | $16.87 | +$3.3 | 58% 21660-15754 (37414) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $14.2 | -$0.8 | 19% 2965-12539 (15504) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $1.49 | $1.57 | +$0.08 | 54% 10711-9227 (19938) |
Invested
$655.24
Value
$689.17
PnL
-$10.55
Record
37%
891-1523 (2414)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.02
Value
$16.87
PnL
+$3.3
Record
58%
21660-15754 (37414)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15
Value
$14.2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
19%
2965-12539 (15504)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.57
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
10711-9227 (19938)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.