Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$147.36
$248.43
77.7¢ → 96.6¢
+24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $84.73 | $91.1 | +$6.37 | 53% 24313-21381 (45694) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $31.49 | $32.86 | +$1.38 | 58% 21660-15754 (37414) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $22.79 | $22.48 | +$241.51 | 39% 1294-2033 (3327) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $1.44 | $0.91 | -$0.82 | 56% 777-601 (1378) |
Invested
$84.73
Value
$91.1
PnL
+$6.37
Record
53%
24313-21381 (45694)
Invested
$31.49
Value
$32.86
PnL
+$1.38
Record
58%
21660-15754 (37414)
Invested
$22.79
Value
$22.48
PnL
+$241.51
Record
39%
1294-2033 (3327)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$0.82
Record
56%
777-601 (1378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.