Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $889 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$888.8
$57.06
68.2¢ → 75.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $624.83 | $686.56 | +$8.7 | 38% 866-1436 (2302) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.9¢ | $474.39 | $475.2 | -$52.22 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $200.75 | $211.36 | +$60.92 | |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $114.46 | $110.38 | -$16.51 | 32% 2228-4733 (6961) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $59.47 | $60.28 | +$0.81 | 53% 23817-20965 (44782) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 8.3¢ | $8.04 | $28.57 | +$72.98 | 39% 1285-2015 (3300) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $2.86 | $3.01 | -$0.22 | 34% 3341-6356 (9697) |
Invested
$624.83
Value
$686.56
PnL
+$8.7
Record
38%
866-1436 (2302)
Both legs:
Invested
$114.46
Value
$110.38
PnL
-$16.51
Record
32%
2228-4733 (6961)
Invested
$59.47
Value
$60.28
PnL
+$0.81
Record
53%
23817-20965 (44782)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$28.57
PnL
+$72.98
Record
39%
1285-2015 (3300)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$3.01
PnL
-$0.22
Record
34%
3341-6356 (9697)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.