Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 5?

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$55.12

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 95¢

+29% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares967

Combined PnL-$40.06

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.03

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$15.06

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 74.4¢	$2.2K	$634.93	-$81.9	41% 825-1210 (2035)
Istaroth	Noavg 77¢	$273.94	$99.11	-$5.55	14% 508-3080 (3588)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 78¢	$54.8	$67.23	+$9.84	56% 664-524 (1188)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$52.45	$49.56	+$1.32	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 27.3¢	$22.1	$30.43	+$8.33	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$33.44	$28.35	+$4.45	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$38.08	$26.39	+$7.31	55% 4491-3700 (8191)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$26.26	$24.16	+$4.44	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$54.59	$20.72	+$5.32	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$16.05	$17.04	+$3.45	48% 764-838 (1602)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 73¢	$10	$9.2	+$1.9	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.47	$4.95	+$0.6	53% 8421-7496 (15917)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$13.62	$3.39	-$10.51	53% 3933-3494 (7427)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 61¢	$2.32	$2.75	+$0.43	43% 3222-4252 (7474)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$2.35	$2.43	+$0.08	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$7.2	$2	-$5.2	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$3.46	$0.21	+$0.57	76% 13050-4194 (17244)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$2,164.26

Value

$634.93

PnL

-$81.9

Record

41%

825-1210 (2035)

Istaroth

Invested

$273.94

Value

$99.11

PnL

-$5.55

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$54.8

Value

$67.23

PnL

+$9.84

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$52.45

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$1.32

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$22.1

Value

$30.43

PnL

+$8.33

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.44

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$4.45

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$38.08

Value

$26.39

PnL

+$7.31

Record

55%

4491-3700 (8191)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.26

Value

$24.16

PnL

+$4.44

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$54.59

Value

$20.72

PnL

+$5.32

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$17.04

PnL

+$3.45

Record

48%

764-838 (1602)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$1.9

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.47

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

8421-7496 (15917)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.62

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$10.51

Record

53%

3933-3494 (7427)

merod<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.43

Record

43%

3222-4252 (7474)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

PnL

-$5.2

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.57

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.