Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 5?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $123 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$123.11
$34.93
99.1¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-29 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.2¢ | $257.52 | $59.71 | +$35.53 | 53% 29191-26096 (55287) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $56.7 | $56.81 | +$0.11 | 39% 1066-1669 (2735) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $12.07 | $5.05 | +$0.01 | 55% 4405-3598 (8003) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.5 | $0.78 | -$0.72 | 58% 2490-1820 (4310) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | +$0 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
balthazarInvested
$257.52
Value
$59.71
PnL
+$35.53
Record
53%
29191-26096 (55287)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$56.81
PnL
+$0.11
Record
39%
1066-1669 (2735)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
4405-3598 (8003)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$0.72
Record
58%
2490-1820 (4310)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.