Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on November 15?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $50 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$50.35

Combined PnL

-$85.85

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$49.98

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.13

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares758

Combined PnL-$85.98

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.99	+$0.08	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.99	+$0.05	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.73	$0.08	-$14.65	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.38	$0.08	-$14.3	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.44	$0.07	-$12.37	26% 603-1747 (2350)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.04	-$7.23	38% 317-524 (841)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.61	$0.03	-$5.58	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$34.46	$0.02	-$7.16	28% 3298-8406 (11704)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$170.44	$0.02	-$18.9	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3	$0.02	-$2.98	29% 308-740 (1048)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.82	$0.02	-$2.8	24% 788-2560 (3348)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.73

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.65

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.38

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.3

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.44

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.37

Record

26%

603-1747 (2350)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.23

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.58

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.16

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$170.44

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$18.9

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.98

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.82

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.8

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.