Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $305 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$304.56

Combined PnL

-$15.14

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$304.22

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.34

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$15.1

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$76.07	$76	-$0.08	51% 901-849 (1750)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$69.85	$69.93	+$0.08	34% 303-590 (893)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$61.94	$61.88	-$0.06	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.96	+$0	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$20.3	$20.34	+$0.04	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.29	$15.28	-$0.02	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.98	$14.97	-$0.01	51% 818-797 (1615)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.86	$5.86	+$0.01	38% 306-500 (806)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.44	$0.27	-$12.16	25% 580-1695 (2275)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3	$0.07	-$2.93	30% 250-582 (832)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$76.07

Value

$76

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$69.85

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$61.94

Value

$61.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$20.3

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.86

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.01

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.44

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$12.16

Record

25%

580-1695 (2275)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.93

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.