Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or higher on November 14?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 22%
$270.68
-$55.39
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $259.36 | $259.49 | +$0.13 | 99% 1015-11 (1026) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.88 | $10.88 | +$0.01 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $23 | $0.13 | -$22.87 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.27 | $0.06 | -$11.2 | 30% 989-2362 (3351) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.82 | $0.05 | -$8.77 | 34% 81-155 (236) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.8 | $0.04 | -$6.76 | 36% 3613-6424 (10037) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.02 | $0.02 | -$3 | 27% 973-2599 (3572) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.01 | -$2.71 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.21 | $0 | -$0.2 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
Invested
$259.36
Value
$259.49
PnL
+$0.13
Record
99%
1015-11 (1026)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$10.88
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$23
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$22.87
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
Invested
$11.27
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.2
Record
30%
989-2362 (3351)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.77
Record
34%
81-155 (236)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.76
Record
36%
3613-6424 (10037)
Invested
$3.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3
Record
27%
973-2599 (3572)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.71
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.