Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on November 14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$181.05

Combined PnL

-$53.56

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$180.8

Total Shares181

Combined PnL+$0.39

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares464

Combined PnL-$53.94

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$59.97	+$0.03	34% 231-458 (689)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$30.68	$30.87	+$0.19	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.99	+$0.08	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.99	+$0.05	33% 220-451 (671)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.99	+$0.05	29% 232-564 (796)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.99	$0.12	-$21.86	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$140.5	$0.06	-$22.8	36% 3727-6719 (10446)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.84	$0.05	-$8.79	26% 548-1574 (2122)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.29	$0	-$0.29	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.21	$0	-$0.2	56% 2268-1802 (4070)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.68

Value

$30.87

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.99

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$21.86

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.5

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$22.8

Record

36%

3727-6719 (10446)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.84

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.79

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

PnL

-$0.29

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.