Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $304 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$304.31

Combined PnL

-$29.92

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$302.24

Total Shares305

Combined PnL-$9.89

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.07

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$20.03

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$88.41	$89.45	+$1.04	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.84	$59.4	-$0.41	27% 976-2603 (3579)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$59.34	$59.4	+$0.06	31% 190-428 (618)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$46.77	$46.61	-$0.16	26% 544-1530 (2074)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98¢	$29.4	$29.7	+$0.3	30% 189-443 (632)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.4¢	$146.38	$17.68	-$10.72	36% 3652-6517 (10169)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.54	$2.01	-$19.52	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$0.03	-$0.32	30% 993-2362 (3355)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.21	$0.02	-$0.19	57% 2248-1724 (3972)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$88.41

Value

$89.45

PnL

+$1.04

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$59.84

Value

$59.4

PnL

-$0.41

Record

27%

976-2603 (3579)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$59.34

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$0.06

Record

31%

190-428 (618)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$46.77

Value

$46.61

PnL

-$0.16

Record

26%

544-1530 (2074)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

30%

189-443 (632)

Lucerys

Invested

$146.38

Value

$17.68

PnL

-$10.72

Record

36%

3652-6517 (10169)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.54

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$19.52

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.32

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.