Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 88¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$362.32
$37.62
80.5¢ → 88¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $249 | $272.47 | +$23.47 | 57% 1056-787 (1843) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.54 | $28.43 | +$6.89 | 40% 3403-5074 (8477) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $25.13 | $27.18 | +$2.05 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $24.05 | $26.4 | +$2.35 | 33% 178-365 (543) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 13% 54-364 (418) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $1.88 | $1.99 | +$0.11 | 60% 2190-1463 (3653) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $53.55 | $1.87 | +$4.61 | 36% 3549-6234 (9783) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $40.9 | $1.57 | -$1.87 | 53% 1163-1023 (2186) |
Invested
$249
Value
$272.47
PnL
+$23.47
Record
57%
1056-787 (1843)
Invested
$21.54
Value
$28.43
PnL
+$6.89
Record
40%
3403-5074 (8477)
Invested
$25.13
Value
$27.18
PnL
+$2.05
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$24.05
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$2.35
Record
33%
178-365 (543)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
54-364 (418)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.99
PnL
+$0.11
Record
60%
2190-1463 (3653)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$53.55
Value
$1.87
PnL
+$4.61
Record
36%
3549-6234 (9783)
Invested
$40.9
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$1.87
Record
53%
1163-1023 (2186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.