Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $327 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$326.9

Combined PnL

-$25.02

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 96.7¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$320.2

Total Shares330

Combined PnL-$9.97

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.7

Total Shares239

Combined PnL-$15.05

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$74.86	$74.26	-$0.6	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$58.44	$58.2	-$0.24	29% 1063-2631 (3694)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97¢	$58.2	$58.2	+$0	31% 190-428 (618)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$45.66	$45.53	-$0.13	26% 544-1530 (2074)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97¢	$37.77	$37.65	-$0.12	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.35	$29.1	-$0.25	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
Lucerys	Noavg 97.1¢	$142.9	$17.27	-$8.62	36% 3652-6517 (10169)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.54	$6.63	-$14.9	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.21	$0.06	-$0.14	57% 2248-1724 (3972)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$74.86

Value

$74.26

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$58.44

Value

$58.2

PnL

-$0.24

Record

29%

1063-2631 (3694)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$58.2

Value

$58.2

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

190-428 (618)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$45.66

Value

$45.53

PnL

-$0.13

Record

26%

544-1530 (2074)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.77

Value

$37.65

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.35

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0.25

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

Lucerys

Invested

$142.9

Value

$17.27

PnL

-$8.62

Record

36%

3652-6517 (10169)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.54

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$14.9

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.14

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.