Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$101.82

Combined PnL

-$60.17

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$100.59

Total Shares101

Combined PnL-$0.33

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$59.83

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$30.2	$29.91	-$0.29	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.91	-$0.06	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.91	+$0	29% 232-564 (796)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.85	$10.86	+$0.01	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.99	$0.73	-$21.27	39% 3605-5672 (9277)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.84	$0.29	-$8.55	26% 548-1574 (2122)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$245.99	$0.09	-$24.48	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.09	-$2.64	58% 703-504 (1207)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.77	$0.02	-$2.7	37% 1518-2567 (4085)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.21	$0.01	-$0.2	56% 2269-1817 (4086)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$30.2

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.29

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.91

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$10.86

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.99

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$21.27

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.84

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$8.55

Record

26%

548-1574 (2122)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$245.99

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$24.48

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2.64

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.77

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.7

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.